Date first published: 30/06/2026
Key sectors: mining
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; supply chain disruption; cargo transport
Risk development
On 16 June protesters blockaded major roads leading from Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi mine to the Chinese border, disrupting shipments of copper concentrate exports from one of the world’s largest copper mines. The protesters, belonging to the Radical Reform Movement (RRM) activist group, accused Rio Tinto and the Mongolian government of damaging the environment and “exporting the country’s wealth” while leaving ordinary Mongolian citizens broadly disenfranchised. The RRM demanded that larger shares of mining revenues be shared among the public, stating that poverty remained widespread despite decades of resource development across the country.
Why it matters
At least 90 per cent of Oyu Tolgoi’s copper ore – approximately 345,000 tonnes in 2025 – is sent to China for smelting and refinement, to primarily be used in construction and electronics manufacturing, including smartphones, electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. Oyu Tolgoi alone accounts for roughly 2 per cent of Chinese copper consumption, a figure likely to grow as the mine reaches its anticipated objective of producing 500,000 tonnes of copper ore by 2028. Moreover, as supply chain frictions increase globally – particularly in oil markets – Beijing may seek to ‘near-shore’ its supply chain for critical minerals, increasingly shifting away from traditional sources in Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Mongolia.
Furthermore, there is a recent precedent of protests over environmental and wealth inequality concerns causing considerable shifts in the country’s political landscape. On 3 June 2025 former prime minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene resigned after losing a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, triggered by persistent protests over allegations about lavish spending linked to his family’s spending habits. Protesters complained about a structural lack of benefits from the Oyu Tolgoi mine’s expansion, and accused Oyun-Erdene of making secretive and broadly opaque deals with foreign mining firms. Should the RRM continue to build public support, it may heighten risks to political stability and threaten the administration of current Prime Minister Nyam-Osoryn Uchral.
Background
The RRM is not an organised, unified movement with a clear hierarchy or leadership. Rather, it functions as a loose social movement seeking to promote resource nationalism, greater accountability for elites, a redistribution of mining-sourced wealth, a reduction in the influence of mainstream political parties and more robust environmental protection standards. The movement originally emerged out of the December 2022 “coal theft” protests, in which demonstrators held massive rallies in Ulaanbaatar’s Sukhbaatar Square. Protesters demanded that politicians resign amid a scandal that revealed large volumes of coal from state-owned mining company Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi had been undervalued, misreported or illegally diverted, with reported exports to China failing to match generated revenues.
The 16 June blockade is not Oyu Tolgoi’s first setback in production and export operations. The project has previously faced chronic delays, significant cost overruns and financing structure disputes between Rio Tinto and the government. On 15 October 2025 Rio Tinto agreed to pay a US$138.75m settlement with operating partner Turquoise Hill Resources after the latter accused Rio Tinto of defrauding investors by concealing a variety of issues associated with its 2017 underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi, valued at US$7bln.
Risk outlook
Oyu Tolgoi’s outsized significance to the economy and its role as a precedent for triggering protests are likely to continue to render it a target for environmental and inequality-related protests, as well as for chronic concerns over economic reliance on natural resource extraction. While there is no imminent threat to Uchral’s government, sustained frustrations voiced by the RRM may increase the risks of civil unrest and political instability in the longer term.