Americas: President Paz dismisses Economy Minister after pressure from Congress in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; economic risks; civil unrest
In Bolivia, on 21 August President Rodrigo Paz dismissed Economy Minister Jose Gabriel Espinoza after Congress voted to censure him on 18 August, appointing Environment Minister Oscar Mario Justiniano Pinto as interim replacement. The move highlighted Paz’s weakening congressional support as his government faces persistent inflation, fuel and foreign-currency shortages and growing opposition to austerity measures. Espinoza’s removal is significant given his central role in Paz’s pro-market economic programme and efforts to secure international financing. His departure could complicate congressional approval of a US$1.9bln IMF package, a US$200m World Bank loan and further economic reforms. Paz’s fragile political position is likely to deteriorate further if economic hardship persists and opposition parties exploit growing public discontent. Further protests and political infighting are therefore likely in the coming weeks, increasing uncertainty over the government’s ability to implement its economic agenda.
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Asia Pacific: Shein listing shows cost to Chinese e-commerce of Western trade barriers
Sectors: retail
Key Risks: trade and tariffs
In China, on 24 August reports emerged that fast-fashion retailer Shein is seeking a valuation of US$27bln in a Hong Kong listing on 1 September, against US$100bln in a private funding round in 2022. The fall followed Washington and Brussels’ decisions to close the customs exemptions that made its business model work, with the US ending duty-free treatment for low-value parcels and the EU imposing a EUR3 charge on those shipments in July. US sales fell more than 14 per cent in Q1 and could decline further in Europe. Shein’s decision to list in Hong Kong followed failed attempts to list in New York and London, with regulators in both objecting to labour conditions in the cotton supply chain, alongside disclosure and audit concerns. Other Chinese cross-border retailers are likely to face difficulties in listing abroad, likely focused on Hong Kong or Shanghai.
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Eurasia: Pashinyan states Armenia to submit formal application to EU soon
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks; trade disruptions
In Armenia, on 24 August Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated Yerevan would submit a formal application to the EU soon, before planning a referendum on EU accession. Pashinyan made the comment during parliamentary debates on the government’s 2026-2031 programme, which stipulates that foreign policy priorities will include deepening strategic partnerships with the EU, US and China, while preserving and deepening relations with Moscow. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Pashinyan’s comments by stating Armenia would encounter contradictions with its Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) membership, which would primarily harm Yerevan. Pashinyan has increasingly pivoted towards the EU, although Moscow remains Armenia’s most important trade partner and Pashinyan describes his relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin close. Pashinyan will likely seek to advance ties with the EU while maintaining close relations with Moscow, although this is likely to result in further trade restrictions by Russia.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Citizens in Iceland to vote on whether to resume talks with EU
Sectors: all
Key Risks: business and economic risks
In Iceland, on 29 August citizens will vote in a referendum on whether to open accession talks with the EU. If the referendum passes, it would launch negotiations with the EU, with another referendum on whether to formally join the bloc potentially taking place in 2028. The referendum came amid growing geopolitical competition in the Arctic and US President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland. Polls suggest the vote will be close, with a Gallup poll putting both camps at 46 per cent. The fishing industry, accounting for 40 per cent of the country’s exports, opposes resuming negotiations with the EU, with the main fishing federation stating the country would “lose power to act as an independent state”. If the referendum passes, fishing is likely to become a focus of debate, with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) likely to be a sticking point.
Click here to access Iceland’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Protesters shut UNHCR office in Libya’s Tripoli for second time
Sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; political uncertainty; government instability; vandalism; targeted attacks; business disruptions
In Libya, on 23 August protesters shut the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Tripoli for the second time since 4 June, welding the entrance shut and preventing staff from entering. The protesters, who oppose UNHCR and International Organisation for Migration (IOM) operations, demanded the cancellation of agreements allowing the agencies to operate in Libya. The renewed action reflects longstanding frustration over irregular migration, with Libyans accusing international organisations of facilitating migrant arrivals and providing services without addressing pressures on local communities. The issue has repeatedly fuelled protests and tensions around migrant facilities. Further protests targeting UNHCR, IOM and other international organisations are likely in the short to medium term, particularly if authorities fail to address protesters’ demands. Prolonged disruptions could restrict humanitarian operations, increase pressure on international organisations and raise risks to personnel and facilities in Tripoli.
Click here to access Libya’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Nine killed as airstrikes and tensions escalate against Somali piracy
Sectors: shipping
Key risks: cargo transport; regional escalation; targeted attacks
In Somalia, on 23 August nine people were killed in an airstrike of unidentified origin on Jiifle, Nugaal region, in the semi-autonomous republic of Puntland. Local sources linked the strike to the Cameroon-flagged M/V Lutuf, hijacked by pirates on 17 August off Eyl, Nugaal, while allegedly carrying weapons for a Turkish military training centre in Mogadishu and taken to the area days earlier. Puntland’s information ministry stated it had no official information and had opened an investigation. The unconfirmed nature of the airstrikes and competing security jurisdictions has raised tensions between Mogadishu and Puntland, which claimed that strikes on 17 and 20 August killed fishermen and not pirates. The disjointed security response to growing pirate activity off the coast of Nugaal region will undermine counter-piracy operations and further destabilise coastal areas of the country, sustaining piracy risks.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake country profile.