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Mexico: Trouble in paradise?

Date first published: 13/04/2023 Key sectors: tourism; all Key risks: organised crime; violent crime; kidnapping; extortion; business disruption   Risk development Organised and violent crime is on the rise in Mexico’s seemingly paradisiacal Caribbean beach resorts and their surrounding areas. On 16 March the United States (US) issued a travel alert warning travellers to “exercise […]

Saudi Arabia – Worldwide: ‘Saudi First’ policy shakes up oil markets

Date first published: 11/04/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: inflation; supply deficit; political tensions   Risk development: On 2 April Saudi-led OPEC+ stunned global markets by announcing voluntary cuts totalling 1.2m bpd. Cuts will be effective from May and will last through end-2023, depending on global economic conditions. Oil markets responded to the […]

Israel: Ben-Gvir’s private paramilitary force

Date first published: 04/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; internal conflict    Risk development On 27 March after 12 consecutive weeks of protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a pause in the legislative process of the judicial reforms launched by his government. At the same time, to prevent the government’s immediate collapse, the […]

Central African Republic: Pointing the trigger finger

Date first published: 28/03/2023  Key sectors: all; mining  Key risks: terrorism   Risk development On 19 March nine Chinese workers were killed and two others were injured by unidentified armed assailants during an attack at the Chimbolo gold mine, near Bambari, Ouaka prefecture. The assailants stormed the facility’s premises around 05:00 local time and quickly […]

Argentina: Drug violence (finally) in the spotlight

Date first published: 21/03/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: drug trafficking; targeted killings; arson attacks; extortion; crime-related violence   Risk development Drug trafficking and associated violence have finally made it to the national public and security agenda. On 7 March President Alberto Fernandez announced the deployment of additional federal security forces – including 300 gendarmerie […]

Australia: A national security focus on investments

Date first published: 09/03/2023 Key sectors: mining; national security; foreign investment Key risks: economic risks; business risks; frustration of process   Risk development On 15 February Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocked Chinese-owned Yuxiao Fund (YF) – the largest shareholder of Australian rare earths producer Northern Minerals (NM) – from increasing ownership from 9.92 to 19.9 per […]

Ecuador: Further instability, disruptive unrest looms

Date first published: 07/03/2023 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; mining; cargo transport; retail Key risks: political instability; governability; business disruption; political violence; civil unrest   Risk development Three recent developments underscore a fresh heightened risk of political instability and disruptive unrest in Ecuador. On 5 February conservative President Guillermo Lasso suffered a significant defeat […]

US: attacks on infrastructure

Date first published: 28/02/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; civilian infrastructure   Risk development In the first eight months of 2022, the Department of Energy recorded at least 101 incidents that they were deemed intentional attacks, threats of an attack or vandalism on the United States’ power grid. Between August 2022 and January 2023 […]

Nigeria – Tinubu expected to snatch 25 February presidential election

Date first published: 16/02/23 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability, policy uncertainty Risk development On 15 February two Nigeria based research organisations, ANAP Foundation and Kwakol Research, published a poll that identified presidential candidate Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) as the most likely candidate to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari […]

Iran – Russia: an alternative inter-bank system to skirt Western sanctions

Date first published: 08/02/23 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic, business   Risk development On 30 January Iran and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) creating an inter-bank messaging system that would allow financial transactions between Iranian and Russian banks to bypass the Belgium-based international Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. Tehran […]

Sweden-Turkey: Sweden’s burning path to NATO

Date first published: 02/02/2023 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: civil unrest; war on land   Risk development On 16 May 2022 the previous Swedish government, led by the centre-left Magdalena Andersson, decided to apply for NATO membership. The decision was taken after the Foreign Ministry drafted a report on the consequences of Russia’s war […]

Uzbekistan: The coldest winter in 50 years

Date first published: 26/01/2023 Key sectors: energy; oil and gas Key risks: civil unrest; economic; business   Risk outlook On 18 January dozens of residents stormed local energy facilities in the capital Tashkent and other towns in the Tashkent region due to electricity shortages. On 16 January a video emerged on social media of a […]

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