Ones to Watch
Americas: Colombia’s presidential elections likely to result in June runoff, political uncertainty Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence and uncertainty; policy continuity; business and economic risks In Colombia, presidential elections scheduled for 29 May are expected to lead to a 19 June runoff between leftist frontrunner Gustavo Petro and either centre-right Federico Gutierrez or independent […]
Americas: Chile’s Constituent Assembly rejects major mining overhaul; changes still expected Sectors: mining Key Risks: regulatory uncertainty; business risks In Chile, on 14 May the Constituent Assembly (CA) in charge of drafting a new constitution rejected Article 27 – a key proposal which included provisions granting the state exclusive rights to mine lithium and other […]
Americas: Gulf Clan ends deadly armed strike, risk of violence to remain high in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent crime; armed attacks; arson In Colombia, the risk of further violence will remain high despite the apparent end of a four-day ‘armed strike’ by the Gulf Clan – the country’s largest organised criminal group. Authorities […]
Americas: Risk of violence high after Lasso invokes SoE amid rampant gang crime in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: violent crime; gang-related violence; civil unrest In Ecuador, the risk of violent confrontations between the security forces and criminal groups will remain high over the coming weeks after President Guillermo Lasso declared a 60-day state of […]
Americas: Peru’s mining sector, copper output at risk of further disruption due to unrest Sectors: mining; extractive industries Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption In Peru, the risk of unrest affecting the key mining sector will remain high over the coming weeks despite protesters reportedly lifting their 52-day-long protest at Southern Copper’s Cuajone copper mine. […]
Americas: Mexico’s AMLO to continue to prioritise state over private sector despite major defeat Sectors: all; electricity; mining; oil and gas Key Risks: regulatory changes; contract frustration; nationalisations In Mexico, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will continue to prioritise the state over private players in the country’s key sectors despite a major defeat in […]
Americas: Lula appoints Alckmin as running mate to widen support ahead of October elections in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: business and economic risks; political stability In Brazil, leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva named former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate for the 2 October presidential elections amid shifting […]
Americas: Risk of disruptive, violent unrest remains high in Peru despite five-day truce Sectors: all; cargo transport, agriculture Key Risks: business and economic risks; supply chain disruption; civil unrest In Peru, the risk of disruptive, violent unrest will remain high over the coming days despite a five-day truce in place until 7 April, agreed by […]
Americas: Centrist candidates to face off in Costa Rica’s tight 3 April presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; governability In Costa Rica, former centrist president Jose Maria Figueres of the National Liberation Party (PLN) and former finance minister Rodrigo Chaves will face off in a tight presidential runoff on 3 April. […]
Americas: Canada’s CP Rail halts operations amid strike, supply chain disruption looms Sectors: all; rail transport; agriculture; manufacturing Key Risks: business and economic risks; supply chain disruption; civil unrest In Canada, on 20 March Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) halted operations and locked out employees after talks with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union failed […]
Americas: Colombia’s presidential primary and legislative elections signal likely shift to the left Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; business and economic risks In Colombia, leftist Senator and former guerrilla Gustavo Petro overwhelmingly won the primary vote of the left-wing Historic Pact coalition, strengthening the possibility of a historic shift to the left […]
Americas: Chile’s far-left Gabriel Boric takes office on 11 March, orderly transition expected Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; business risks; civil unrest In Chile, an orderly transition of power is expected on 11 March when far-left President-elect Gabriel Boric is set to take office. While the stock and currency markets plunged following […]