Ones to Watch
Americas: Violent unrest and associated disruption expected to continue in Chile Sectors: all Key Risks: violent unrest; vandalism; looting; business disruption; policy continuity In Chile, further violent unrest should be expected as protests against metro fare hikes violently escalated even after a state of emergency and a night-time curfew were imposed in Santiago and other […]
Americas: Bolivia’s President Morales runs for controversial re-election on 20 October Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; election-related violence In Bolivia, leftist President Evo Morales will seek to extend his 13-year long presidency by running for a controversial fourth term on 20 October. Frontrunner Morales and his nearest challenger, former president Carlos Mesa from the […]
Americas: Disruptive unrest over austerity measures to persist across Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: violent unrest; looting; travel disruption; policy continuity; governability In Ecuador, further disruptive unrest and associated violence over recently announced austerity measures are expected at least over the coming week. On 6 October indigenous groups stated they would continue to block roads […]
Americas: Violent unrest escalates in Haiti, heightened instability expected to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: violent unrest; business disruption; looting; political instability In Haiti, an ongoing wave of violent anti-government unrest is expected to continue to intensify over the coming days. Four people have so far been killed since demonstrations reignited in early September to […]
Americas: Uncertainty persists amid mounting pressure to set date for snap elections in Guyana Sectors: oil & gas, mining Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; FoP In Guyana, the government could announce a long-delayed snap general election date over the coming week. President David Granger scheduled a full Cabinet meeting for 24 September after GECOM, […]
Americas: Three-month long protests against Tia Maria copper mine could intensify in Peru Sectors: oil & gas Key Risks: business disruption; frustration of process; civil unrest In Peru, disruptive protests against Southern Copper’s controversial Tia Maria copper mine project in Arequipa region could intensify over the coming days. Demonstrations against the currently suspended project have […]
Americas: Brazil’s pension reform expected to pass by early October Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; fiscal deficit; civil unrest In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro’s pension reform overhauling the social security system is expected to be approved in the coming weeks. On 4 September the Senate’s constitutional affairs committee approved the main text by 18 […]
Americas: Conflict dynamics to change as dissident former FARC leaders issue call to arms Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; guerrilla activity; clashes with security forces In Colombia, conflict dynamics are expected to change as dissident former FARC leaders called on their followers to take up arms. On 29 August dissident former FARC second-in command […]
Americas: Mexico expected to announce deal with gas pipeline companies to avoid arbitration Sectors: oil & gas Key Risks: business risks; frustration of process In Mexico, the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is expected to announce an agreement over the coming days to resolve a lengthy conflict with energy companies over gas […]
Americas: Argentina to face further financial turmoil as crisis intensifies Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; political instability; policy continuity In Argentina, further financial turmoil is expected in the lead up to and after the upcoming 27 October general elections in which President Mauricio Macri seems increasingly unlikely to be re-elected. On 17 August Nicolas […]
Americas: Southern Copper’s Tia Maria project licence suspended due to protests in Peru Sectors: oil & gas Key Risks: business disruption; frustration of process; civil unrest In Peru, the government of President Martin Vizcarra suspended the recently issued construction permit for Southern Copper’s Tia Maria copper mining project after weeks of violent anti-mining protests in the […]
Americas: President Macri expected to come second in Argentina’s 11 August primary elections Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; economic reforms In Argentina, the 11 August ‘PASO’ primary elections will provide the first major temperature check ahead of the upcoming October general election, expected to be highly contested between centre-right President Mauricio Macri and […]