Americas: Voters to choose next president in closely contested 7 June runoff in Peru
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; political polarisation
In Peru, on 7 June voters will head to the polls to elect the next president in a closely contested runoff. Two recent polls showed right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori holding a narrow lead over leftist Roberto Sanchez, although a large share of voters remained undecided or planned to cast blank or invalid ballots. One survey put Fujimori on 38 per cent and Sanchez on 35 per cent, underscoring the race’s competitiveness and uncertain outcome despite Fujimori’s modest advantage. The result will be significant for the economy, as the candidates propose sharply different approaches to the mining sector, a key driver of exports and investment. Fujimori supports incentives for mining projects, while Sanchez has proposed higher taxes, contract reviews and constitutional reforms that have raised investor concerns. Political volatility and policy uncertainty are likely to persist in the near term regardless of the outcome.
Click here to access Peru’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippine Senator Jose Estrada indicted on corruption charges
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; political polarisation
In the Philippines, on 28 May Manila’s central anti-corruption court indicted Senator Jose ‘Jinggoy’ Estrada on charges of corruption, alleging that he had received an estimated PHP573m (US$9.8m) in kickbacks from defrauded flood control projects. Estrada is the latest high-profile supporter of former president Rodrigo Duterte to face judicial proceedings. On 6 February articles of impeachment were re-introduced against Vice President Sara Duterte. Fugitive Senator Ronald Dela Rosa went into hiding on 14 May for his role as police chief during the Duterte administration’s ‘war on drugs’ following confirmation of an ICC warrant for his arrest. Continued actions against the pro-Duterte faction pose acute stability risks to the Senate, while prosecution of pro-Duterte individuals and officials by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s government risks country-wide civil unrest amid perceptions of a political purge in the coming weeks.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Armenia heads for parliamentary elections amid tensions with Russia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance; civil unrest
In Armenia, on 7 June citizens will vote in parliamentary elections – the first such vote since Azerbaijan’s September 2023 lightning takeover of the Armenian-backed separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region which resulted in the expulsion of its ethnic Armenian population. The vote will be a major test for reformist Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan has faced domestic opposition for his efforts to reach a peace deal with Baku, as well as tensions with Russia over his move to align Yerevan closer with the US and EU. On 27 May Moscow warned it would suspend its deal to supply discounted natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds if Yerevan pursued its efforts to join the EU, and argued Yerevan’s EU aspirations clash with its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. Polls show Pashinyan holding a comfortable lead over pro-Russian opposition groups. Tensions will rise ahead of the vote.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: EU considers freezing Russian oil price cap amid ongoing Middle East war
Sectors: all; oil and gas; energy; aviation
Key Risks: supply chain disruptions: business disruptions; sanctions
On 31 May Bloomberg reported that the EU was considering a temporary freeze on its price cap on Russian oil amid fears of fuel shortages as the Middle East war enters its fourth month. Brussels introduced a US$60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil in late 2022 to reduce Moscow’s energy revenues while maintaining crude flows to global markets following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, in January the EU introduced a floating rate cap of 15 per cent below market rates for Moscow’s main Urals blend. The reports came after on 20 May the UK delayed some sanctions on Russian oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to address soaring energy prices. Pressure to ease sanctions will rise amid warnings that the European aviation industry faces fuel shortages due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf energy disruptions.
Click here to access France’s and here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Turkey’s CHP crisis sparks mass demonstrations in Ankara
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; political polarisation
In Turkey, on 30 May tens of thousands of supporters of Ozgur Ozel, the ousted leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), marched through central Ankara. On 21 May a court ruling removed him as head of the CHP and reinstated former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu – a move which has been widely criticised as politically motivated. The court’s decision stems from allegations of irregularities in the 2023 CHP congress that elected Ozel. The case is part of a broader wave of legal actions targeting CHP figures, while the government maintains that the judiciary acts independently. The dispute is likely to deepen political polarisation and trigger large-scale demonstrations in the short term, particularly in Ankara and other major cities. Over the medium term, efforts to weaken the opposition could potentially bolster President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chances of extending his hold on power.
Click here to access Turkey’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Ethiopia holds general elections amid regional instability
Sectors: all
Key risks: governance; separatism; cargo transport; civil war; insurgency
In Ethiopia, on 1 June voters headed to the polls to vote in general elections in 11 regions and two chartered cities, with the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) excluding Tigray region due to security concerns. The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) is expected to win by a landslide, but key security and political issues persist. Regional separatist groups announced local transport blockades on 29 May in Amhara and Oromia regions, leading to major concerns over security during the election and subsequent impact on voting procedure in these regions. The government stated it remained confident it would maintain the safety of voters. Despite an expected landslide victory for the ruling Prosperity Party (PP), the post-election climate will remain very tense as regional insurgencies, a political crisis in Tigray region and the prospect of a renewed civil conflict will persist in the short term.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.