Americas: Insecurity and uncertainty rise ahead of 31 May presidential election in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political violence; political uncertainty; targeted attacks; political polarisation
In Colombia, on 23 May presidential candidates concluded campaigning ahead of the 31 May election, with polls indicating that no candidate is likely to win outright and that a polarising 21 June runoff is likely. Leftist Ivan Cepeda remained the narrow first-round frontrunner, although recent surveys suggested he would lose a runoff against opposition candidates Abelardo De La Espriella or Paloma Valencia, reflecting growing voter concern over insecurity. Political violence risks will remain elevated despite temporary ceasefires announced by the ELN and EMC rebel groups on 20 May, which are unlikely to materially improve the security environment for voters, candidates or electoral infrastructure. Armed groups retain the capability to disrupt voting and intimidate campaigns, particularly in rural areas of Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Meta departments. Political violence risks and political uncertainty will remain elevated in the coming weeks.
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Asia Pacific: Malaysia mulls snap general election following minister defections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; government instability; political uncertainty
In Malaysia, on 20 May Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil confirmed that key partners of the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition – including the Barisan Nasional, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Gabungan Parti Sarawak – would remain in support of the ruling Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party until the end of the government’s term. The announcement came just days after key cabinet members – as well as outspoken critics of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim – Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad defected from the ruling government to join the Malaysian United Party. Both ministers cited their respective 23 May 2025 losses of their seats in internal leadership bids for the PKR. Anwar confirmed that he would consider calling a snap general election – previously expected to be held no later than 2028 – should divisions within the PH coalition deepen, potentially raising political instability risks in the coming weeks.
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Eurasia: Russia threatens major attacks on Kyiv after Oreshnik hypersonic missile strike
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; regional escalation; targeted attacks
On 25 May Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow intends to launch major strikes on military targets and decision-making centres in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, urging foreigners to leave the capital. This came after on 24 May two people were killed and 91 injured in one of the heaviest Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv since the start of the war. Moscow fired an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile near the capital – its third such recorded use of the nuclear-capable weapon. Russia described the attacks as retaliation for Ukraine’s alleged 22 May drone strike on a student dormitory in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast in which 21 people were killed and 42 injured, according to Russian officials. The latest escalation comes as both sides intensify attacks on each other’s military and commercial facilities following the 9-11 May ceasefire during the WWII Victory Day celebrations. Intensifying attacks are likely.
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Europe: Prime Minister Frederiksen gets another chance to form government in Denmark
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In Denmark, on 23 May caretaker Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was reappointed to form a government after two failed rounds of negotiations following the 24 March parliamentary elections. This came after the head of the centre-right Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen, announced on 22 May that his attempt to form a right-wing coalition failed. He took over the government formation process from Frederiksen on 8 May after her negotiations with the Moderate Party reached a stalemate. Frederiksen’s Social Democratic party won the March vote but failed to secure a majority, resulting in a 60-day deadlock – the longest in the country’s history. King Frederik X tasked Frederiksen to explore a coalition that could include her Socialist Democrats and the Venstre party. Political stability risks will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
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MENA: IDF expands strikes on Hizbullah in Lebanon as ceasefire strains
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; targeted attacks; violent clashes; regional escalation
In Lebanon, on 25 May Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to intensify operations against Hizbullah following a surge in drone attacks on IDF troops, while far-right ministers called for broader escalation. IDF conducted over 70 strikes in 24 hours, including command centres and weapons depots in Tyre and Bekaa provinces. IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued evacuation orders for Nabatiyah province on 26 May, instructing them to move north of the Zahrani river. The escalation came amid a rapidly deteriorating security environment despite the 16 May ceasefire extension and ongoing Iran-US negotiations, with Israel potentially seeking to disrupt the diplomatic trajectory. In the coming days, intensified airstrikes, Hizbullah retaliation and expanded evacuation zones, possibly extending into Beirut, are highly likely. The risk of a ceasefire collapse ahead of renewed talks on 29 May is increasing.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: M23 drone attacks pose growing threat to airports in eastern DRC
Sectors: aviation; transport
Key risks: targeted attacks; insurgency; cargo transport
In the DRC, on 24 May nine explosions were reported after a drone attack was launched by an unidentified party on Kisangani Bangoka International Airport (FKI) in Tshopo province. Two flights were delayed, but no damage to the facility was reported. This was the fourth reported drone attack on FKI, with the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group taking responsibility for the previous three. Four drone attacks launched in 2026 thus far point to the rapid development of M23’s drone capabilities, likely linked to Rwandan support and procurement channels. M23 cited the growing number of Congolese drone missions from FKI as its reason for targeting the airport. The role of FKI as a civilian and military airport continues to leave it vulnerable to future attacks. Further M23 drone attacks on FKI and other airports in the eastern provinces cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile.