Americas: Disruptive anti-government protests persist in Bolivia
Sectors: mining; all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes
In Bolivia, on 16 May military and police forces clashed with demonstrators near La Paz while attempting to clear roadblocks set up during nationwide antigovernment protests. Around 3,500 security personnel were deployed for the operation. 57 arrests were reported as miners, teachers, indigenous groups and unions protested against President Rodrigo Paz’s government, with some demonstrators demanding his resignation amid a severe economic crisis. The unrest came amid dwindling foreign reserves and fuel and food shortages, alongside controversial subsidy cuts and privatisation plans. The national strike was declared on 1 May, with the government estimating that 22 roadblocks have been erected across the country in recent weeks. With dozens of roadblocks still in place and tensions high, further protests with the potential to turn violent, and related disruption should be expected.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Myanmar risks market volatility with seizure of Chinese imports
Sectors: all
Key Risks: confiscation; trade frictions; supply chain disruption; cargo transport
In Myanmar, on 13 May Naypyidaw intensified its blockade and confiscation of goods imported from China amid a desire to promote consumption of domestic goods and initiate economic recovery. Officials stated that Beijing’s goods had driven up the prices of essential products, with the seizures reportedly leading to the suspension of unspecified transport firms now unable to complete deliveries. Reports indicate that the risk of goods confiscation is especially high along the Muse-Mandalay highway, particularly in the Shan state cities of Lashio, Hsipaw, Namlan, Kyaukme, Phin Oo Lwin and Nawnghkio. However, goods confiscation remains absent in areas controlled by the relatively pro-Beijing Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) rebel group. Despite attempts to stabilise Naypyidaw’s economic performance by rebuilding domestic production, the seizures are likely to trigger severe market volatility and a widespread shortage of basic goods in the short term.
Click here to access China’s and here to access Myanmar’s Global Intake country profiles.
Eurasia: Russia eases citizenship rules for Moldova and Georgia’s breakaway regions
Sectors: all
Key Risks: separatism; regional conflict
In Moldova, on 17 May officials condemned a move by Moscow to simplify the process of obtaining Russian citizenship for the pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region. The condemnation came after on 15 May Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the move, issuing a decree enabling its 350,000 residents to secure Russian passports without meeting normal requirements. Around half of Transnistria’s population already holds Russian citizenship. Separately, on 17 May Moscow also eased such citizenship rules for residents of Georgia’s breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia has weaponised territorial disputes to hamper efforts by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to join the EU and NATO. The latest moves will raise tensions with Georgia and Moldova’s pro-EU government, which view the disputes and the presence of Russian troops in the regions as a threat to their sovereignty.
Click here to access Moldova’s and here to access Georgia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: US cancels plans to deploy 4,000 troops in Poland amid strained NATO tie
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation
On 14 May the US Department of Defence cancelled plans to deploy 4,000 US troops to Poland, according to unnamed US officials. The sudden decision came amid strained NATO ties and the ongoing Middle East war. Unnamed sources stated the move was made to allow for the planned drawdown of US troops in Germany. This came after on 3 May US President Donald Trump stated that the Pentagon’s withdrawal of US soldiers from Germany would exceed the 5,000-strong drawdown announced by the Pentagon on 1 May. Trump also suggested pulling troops from Italy and Spain, after the two countries partially refused to support Washington’s operations against Iran. The withdrawals will undermine NATO unity and could be used as leverage by Washington in ongoing negotiations to reach a trade deal with Brussels.
Click here to access Poland’s and here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Escalation across Gulf energy domain following UAE strike and Saudi interceptions
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; nuclear accident; targeted attacks; supply chain disruption; regional escalation; business disruptions
In the UAE, on 17 May a drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant’s inner perimeter in Abu Dhabi, marking the first attack on the facility since the Middle East war began on 28 February. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed one reactor was briefly powered by emergency diesel generators, while Abu Dhabi reported no radiological impact. On the same day, Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones entering its airspace from Iraq, prompting a formal diplomatic protest to Baghdad and raising concerns over cross-border attacks by Iranian-backed groups. These incidents came amid deadlock in US-Iran talks following the 7 April ceasefire. Further drone incursions and retaliatory strikes are highly likely. The risk of miscalculation is increasing as state and non-state actors expand deniable strikes, raising the likelihood of renewed regional escalation.
Click here to access the UAE’s, and here to access Saudi Arabia’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Transport strikes break out in growing wave of unrest in Kenya
Sectors: transportation
Key risks: business disruptions; industrial action; civil unrest; disruptive unrest
In Kenya, on 18 May nationwide strikes broke out in the transport sector against rising fuel prices. The Truckers Association of Kenya (TAK) warned Nairobi on 17 May that failures to address the 24 per cent rise in fuel costs in May before 18 May would result in nationwide strikes. Strikes were reported in several major cities, including the capital, Nairobi, resulting in business disruptions. Additionally, efforts to block key roads in the capital by strikers were dispersed by police officers. Alongside fuel price increases, increased food costs have also contributed to worsening economic conditions – both driven by trade disruptions linked to the Middle East war. While the prospect of negotiations between transport unions and the government remains unclear, civil unrest risks are likely to increase in the coming months ahead of the anniversary of major protests in June 2024 and June 2025.
Click here to access Kenya’s Global Intake country profile.