Americas: Looting and public anger grow after 24 June twin earthquakes in Venezuela
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; government instability
In Venezuela, on 26 June widespread looting broke out across Catia La Mar and other parts of La Guaira state following twin earthquakes on 24 June. Crowds targeted supermarkets, pharmacies and other commercial premises, stealing food, water, hygiene products and household goods, with reports also alleging some police officers participated in or failed to prevent the looting. In response, the government announced the militarisation of La Guaira state and deployed additional security forces. A UNDP assessment estimated damages from the earthquakes at around US$6.7bln, roughly 6 per cent of GDP, while the death toll rose to at least 1,430 with 3,238 people injured. Growing anger over a perceived slow and uneven response by unelected interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s government will likely persist. Further unrest, logistical disruption and political pressure on the administration are likely.
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Asia Pacific: New Caledonian anti-independence coalition leads provincial elections
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: political polarisation; governance; disruptive unrest
In New Caledonia, on 28 June the pro-France coalition led by Les Loyalistes secured 24 of 54 Congressional seats in the territory’s provincial elections, emerging as the frontrunner but falling four seats short of winning an overall governing majority. The remaining 26 seats were won by broadly pro-independence, but otherwise politically distinct, coalitions, leaving the opposition relatively divided, while the remaining four were secured by independent candidates. The elections were the first of their kind since pro-independence groups attacked nickel mining facilities and security personnel across the island in May 2024 in response to a controversial proposition to overturn regulations prohibiting non-indigenous ethnic Kanak residents from voting in elections. Les Loyalistes are likely to appeal to independent candidates to form a government, while civil unrest risks will persist should the new government fail to adequately address the independence issue.
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Eurasia: Ukraine’s President Zelensky authorises 40-day operation to pressure Russia to end war
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: war-on-land
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 25 June the launch of a 40-day operation aimed at pressuring Moscow to end the war. Zelensky did not provide further details, but the announcement came after his meeting with SBU chief Major General Yevhenii Khmara, who reported on Kyiv’s “plan for long-range sanctions, medium-range sanctions”, suggesting that the operation will likely involve strikes deep inside Russia. It also came amid Ukraine’s intense campaign against Russian infrastructure, primarily oil and gas facilities, which has resulted in nearly a quarter reduction in oil refining capacity and fuel rationing in at least 56 regions across the country. On 29 June Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that Ukrainian drone strikes were “creating problems” but claimed they were not critical. The intensity of Ukrainian strikes is likely to increase over the next 40 days.
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Europe: Serbia’s President Vucic announces he will resign within weeks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Serbia, on 27 June President Aleksandar Vucic suggested that he would resign within weeks. Vucic made the statement during a pro-government rally in Belgrade, without giving further details, although he stated that he would support his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in winning the snap presidential and parliamentary elections. The announcement came amid a series of student-led anti-government demonstrations triggered by the Novi Sad train station accident in November 2024, in which 16 people were killed. On 28 June thousands of people protested in Kraljevo despite Vucic’s announcement, with many sceptical that his resignation would result in a major change. There are widespread expectations that Vucic will run for the office of prime minister while handing the presidency to an ally. Civil unrest and political stability risks are likely to remain high in the coming weeks, particularly during the pre-election campaign period.
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MENA: 178 terrorism suspects remanded in Turkey’s custody ahead of NATO summit in Ankara
Sectors: security; civil society; media; politics
Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; arbitrary arrests
In Turkey, on 27 June authorities placed 178 of 225 detainees in pre-trial detention following counterterrorism raids ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara on 7-8 July. The crackdown included journalists, academics, environmental activists, lawyers, students and trade unionists accused of links to terrorist groups, including Islamic State (IS). In parallel, Ankara imposed sweeping restrictions on gatherings, protests, press activity and public communications, while deploying around 40,000 police officers across the capital. Rights groups criticised the measures as an attempt to suppress civil society and independent media ahead of the summit. Dozens of journalists from critical outlets were denied accreditation without explanation, raising concerns over press freedom and transparency. Further arrests, tighter movement restrictions and selective enforcement against dissent are highly likely, particularly around Ankara and other major cities, as authorities tighten domestic security measures ahead of the summit.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Government bans political rallies ahead of planned protests in Tanzania
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political polarisation
In Tanzania, on 26 June Minister of Home Affairs Patrobas Katambi announced that all political rallies were banned in anticipation of planned protests on 7 July. Katambi stated that intelligence from security forces deemed the demonstrations a security threat, but opposition figures highlighted the lack of an endpoint for the ban. Gen Z protest movements stated that they were protesting for a new constitution that informed democratic practices, the release of opposition leader Tundu Lissu and the start of a legal process for officials responsible for protester deaths in the post-election violence in October and November 2025. Crackdowns on opposition parties and activists are likely to increase in the coming days as the government is likely to take a more proactive approach to avoid nationwide demonstrations. Restrictions on political expression are likely to be upheld in the intermediate term, creating greater political friction with opposition parties.
Click here to access Tanzania’s Global Intake country profile.