Americas: Conservative Fujimori officially proclaimed president-elect after delays in Peru
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; political polarisation; civil unrest
In Peru, on 3 July the National Jury of Elections (JNE) officially proclaimed conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori president-elect after weeks of protests, fraud allegations and review of disputed ballots following a razor-thin election. Fujimori secured 50.135 per cent of the vote, defeating leftist Roberto Sanchez by 49,641 votes by a margin of 49,641 votes. Fujimori was boosted by voters in Lima region and also led votes cast by overseas ballots by a significant margin. Sanchez has refused to recognise Fujimori’s victory, alleging electoral fraud without evidence, and has taken his complaint to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. Markets reacted positively to the result, with the Fujimori administration expected to maintain policy continuity, strengthen investor confidence and support economic growth. Political polarisation is likely to persist, with localised protests likely ahead of Fujimori’s 28 July inauguration.
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Asia Pacific: Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial begins in the Philippines
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political polarisation; political stability; disruptive protests
In the Philippines, on 6 July impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte began amid ongoing protests throughout Manila. The protests broke out on 30 June amid reports that Senator Rodante Marcoleta was facing allegations of mishandling an estimated PHP75m (US$1.2m) in undeclared campaign finance funds. Marcoleta is the third pro-Duterte senator to face legal proceedings in 2026, with Jose Estrada in police custody and Ronald Dela Rosa in hiding. Duterte herself faces charges of mishandling public funds of PHP612.5m (US$10.8m) as education secretary from June 2022 to July 2024. She is also accused of threatening public officials, including 23 November 2024 claims that she hired an assassin to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. if she herself were killed. Duterte’s trial is anticipated to last for approximately 90 days, with protests likely to escalate in the coming days.
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Eurasia: Brussels unveils trade aid for Armenia, funds for South Caucasus amid Russia tensions
Sectors: all; agriculture; transportation; energy
Key Risks: economic risks; supply chain disruptions; trade conflict
On 2 July the EU unveiled a package of trade measures that will liberalise around 80 per cent of Armenia’s exports to the bloc. The package – an addition to the EUR52m package announced in June – aims to support Yerevan’s export diversification amid Russian trade curbs. Moscow restricted imports of most food, seeds, flowers and fertilisers amid parliamentary elections on 7 June, widely seen as economic coercion. Separately, on 1 July Brussels announced a “Global Gateway” investment package of EUR200m for connectivity projects across the South Caucasus, with another EUR20m earmarked for a peace-fostering programme for local populations in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The move signals Brussels’ desire for greater involvement in the region’s new trade corridors after in August 2025 the US secured a deal with Baku and Yerevan to build the TRIPP route. Russia – which remains Yerevan’s main trade partner – is likely to retaliate with further restrictions.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Turkey hosts NATO summit amid rising tensions between US and European allies
Sectors: defence
Key Risks: regional conflict; regional escalation
On 7-8 July Turkey will host the annual NATO summit amid rising tensions between the US and European allies. Defence spending will dominate talks after members agreed to raise their target spending to 5 per cent of GDP in 2025 at the request of US President Donald Trump. Washington is raising pressure on European countries to convert pledges into concrete investments, but some EU members favour spending on European weapons production rather than the US-produced NATO standard. Tensions also flared after Trump repeatedly accused allies including France, Germany, Spain and Italy of failing to assist the US in the Middle East war and criticising its conduct. Allies will discuss how to deepen ties with Ukraine without admitting Kyiv into NATO as this remains a red line for Russia in peace talks. US diplomatic pressure to extract further European commitments will increase, fuelling divisions within the alliance.
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MENA: 16 IRG officers, 50 Huthis killed in violent clashes in Yemen’s Al Hudaydah province
Sectors: all
Key risks: violent clashes; civil war; regional escalation
In Yemen, on 3 and 4 July at least 16 Internationally Recognised Government (IRG)-aligned soldiers were killed and 22 injured during clashes with the Huthis, who registered at least 50 fatalities, in the Jabal Dabbas area, Al Hudaydah province, marking one of the deadliest confrontations in recent years. The fighting began when Huthi militants launched an attack on pro-IRG positions. The attack was repelled within a few hours, with the IRG retaining control of their positions. Local sources stated the Huthis employed snipers, drones and mortars. The violence represents a significant escalation along Yemen’s western coast, where front lines have remained relatively static since the 2022 UN-brokered truce. The fighting followed 3 July Huthi threats against Saudi Arabia’s airports and other strategic infrastructure. Further clashes in the province cannot be ruled out, raising the risk of renewed cross-border escalation between the Huthis and Riyadh.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: JNIM and FLA launch new offensive in central and northern Mali
Sectors: all
Key risks: separatism; violent clashes; terrorism; civil war; insurgency; targeted attacks
In Mali, on 4 July Islamist militant group Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg separatist group, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), launched a coordinated offensive in Kidal, Gao, Tombouctou, Kouikoro and Mopti regions. In the attack on Anefis – one of the two remaining military bases in Kidal region – FLA fighters seized several outposts, with fighting continuing inside the town. The Kenieroba prison, which holds detained militants, was also attacked, with communications cut during the assault. The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) claimed all attacks had been repelled and the situation was “completely under control” despite continued fighting. The offensive demonstrates JNIM and the FLA’s capacity to sustain multi-front pressure on the junta, with the shift in the nature of the conflict making larger-scale offensives more likely in the coming months.
Click here to access Mali’s Global Intake country profile.