Americas: Shield of the Americas backs Colombia’s presidential transition
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; political polarisation; regional escalation
On 11 June the 13-member Shield of the Americas alliance, established by the administration of US President Donald Trump in March 2026, reaffirmed its support for Colombia’s President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella and expressed concern over statements they claim “cast doubts” on the integrity of the presidential election. The joint statement followed claims of electoral fraud by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, despite the result being endorsed by electoral authorities and international observers. Petro has accused Washington of interfering in the electoral process, further straining bilateral relations. Shield of Americas member states warned against attempts to discredit the electoral authorities or obstruct the transfer of power. Further diplomatic tensions are likely ahead of the 7 August inauguration of Abelardo de la Espriella, while cooperation between conservative governments across Latin America is likely to deepen following the inauguration.
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Asia Pacific: Barisan Nasional party secures supermajority in Malaysia’s Johor election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regulatory changes; business risks; policy continuity
In Malaysia, on 11 July the opposition Barisan Nasional (BN) party strengthened its majority in the Johor state election, raising its majority from 40 to 48 of 56 seats in the state assembly. The remaining eight seats were won by the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party. BN’s supermajority of over two-thirds of all seats provides it with unilateral power to pass state constitutional amendments and redraw electoral boundaries in the state. BN is likely to leverage its supermajority to accelerate the implementation of key state programmes, particularly the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ). At a federal level, growing discontent with the slow pace of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s promised reforms suggests continued gains for BN in the next general election, anticipated to be held no later than February 2028.
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Eurasia: Ukraine’s Zelensky dismisses PM Svyrydenko amid thaw in US relations
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance
On 12 July Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he would dismiss Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, but declined to comment on her replacement. While Svyrydenko’s new position has not been announced, Zelensky indicated she would oversee relations with a “key partner”, likely the US, given her recorded successes in strengthening ties with Washington. The decision came after on 8 July US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would grant Kyiv a license to manufacture missile interceptors for the US-supplied Patriot air defence system, a major boost for Kyiv’s efforts to shore up its capabilities and a marked improvement of bilateral ties. Svyrydenko will likely be appointed US ambassador. The head of state energy firm Naftogaz, Serhiy Koretskyi, is speculated to be the most likely next prime minister, although Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal and Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov are also being discussed. Ongoing corruption cases will sustain political stability risks.
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Europe: Hungary’s parliament to approve constitutional change to remove President Sulyok
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Hungary, on 13 July parliament was set to approve a constitutional amendment that would remove President Tamas Sulyok. If approved – which appears likely, as Prime Minister Peter Magyar’s Tisza party holds a super-majority in parliament – the amendment would end Sulyok’s term immediately. Parliament would then elect a new president until a new constitution is approved, or for a maximum of five years, with Magyar pledging a wider constitutional overhaul during the autumn parliamentary session. Following the amendment’s approval, Sulyok will have five days to sign it. If he refuses to do so, parliament will launch impeachment proceedings against him. The move comes amid Magyar’s sweeping efforts to dismantle the system built by his predecessor, Viktor Orban, during his 16 years in power. Further changes are likely and may trigger limited demonstrations by Fidesz supporters.
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MENA: Iraq’s PM al-Zaidi heads to Washington amid push for strategic realignment
Sectors: economy; security; energy
Key risks: economic risks; business risks; targeted attacks
In Iraq, on 12 July Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s office announced a visit to Washington beginning on 13 July to strengthen strategic ties with the US, with discussions expected to focus on oil and gas agreements, investment, trade and military cooperation. The visit came as al-Zaidi consolidates his new government and advances efforts to place armed groups under state control, amid growing US pressure over militias. Baghdad is also seeking alternative energy export routes to reduce exposure to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. However, Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) rejected the visit, warning against “economic occupation” and threatening action against foreign companies. US-Iraq cooperation is likely to proceed, with intensified resistance from IRI factions in the short term. IRI could target foreign investment and energy projects, increasing risks for companies operating in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
Click here to access Iraq’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 11 militants killed as counter-terrorism operations intensify in Kenya
Sectors: all
Key risks: violent clashes; terrorism; targeted attacks; insurgency
In Kenya, on 12 July 11 al-Shabaab militants were killed and seven others were injured in counter-terrorism operations in several villages in Mandera county. A Special Operations Group (SOG) unit raided a base in northern Mandera county, with intelligence identifying 30 al-Shabaab militants in the base. Reports of alleged taxation documentation in the al-Shabaab base indicate growing governance activity by the Somalia-based militant group in parts of Kenya. Additionally, intelligence reports suggesting al-Shabaab plots to launch attacks also highlight a growing degree of confidence from the militant group, increasing terrorism risks in the coming weeks. Clashes and counter-terrorism operations have increased since the start of 2026, with increased reports of weapons smuggling, arrests and militant activity in border regions. Continued counter-terrorism operations are likely in the coming months as al-Shabaab continue to operate in the border regions, with the risk of further incursions likely to persist.
Click here to access Kenya’s Global Intake country profile.