Americas: Right-wing Abelardo De La Espriella wins first round of presidential race in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political polarisation; policy uncertainty
In Colombia, on 7 June right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won the first round of the presidential election with 43.7 per cent of the vote, ahead of left-wing candidate Ivan Cepeda on 40.9 per cent, sending the highly polarised race to a runoff on 21 June. De La Espriella has campaigned on a tough-on-crime platform, pledging to strengthen the military, combat drug trafficking and expand prison capacity, while Cepeda has advocated expanding social programmes, reducing inequality and pursuing dialogue with illegal armed groups. The election will determine the future direction of policy on security, economic management and social issues. Although Cepeda initially questioned the vote count and raised concerns about possible irregularities, he later accepted the results. Polling suggests De La Espriella could enter the runoff with an advantage as right-leaning voters unite behind a single candidate.
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Asia Pacific: Solomon Islands to review 2022 security pact with Beijing
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty
In the Solomon Islands, on 3 June Prime Minister Matthew Wale announced that Honiara would conduct a review of the security pact signed by former prime minister Manasseh Sogavare and Beijing in 2022. The pact, which critics claim was hastily signed with minimal public detail, provided China with a foothold in the region by reportedly allowing the deployment of Chinese security forces to “protect public order” following the 2021 protests over Honiara’s switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. The deal triggered concern with Canberra and Washington, which stated that it could be used to justify an increased Chinese military presence in the south Pacific. However, Wale stated that a non-disclosure clause in the deal prevented public announcement of its details. Should the deal be revoked, Honiara is likely to adopt a more pro-Australia diplomatic stance.
Click here to access the Solomon Islands’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine’s Zelensky publicly calls for direct talks with Russia amid battlefield stalemate
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; regional conflict
On 4 June Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky published an open letter calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin direct talks with him to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky called for a full ceasefire for the duration of talks and stated that Russians were growing tired of the economic fallout and security impact of the war. This came amid a shift in Moscow’s rhetoric, with Putin stating on 10 May the war could end “soon” amid growing warnings from Russian officials of a deteriorating economy. Nevertheless, Putin has thus far refused to abandon his publicly stated aim of capturing the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for a settlement. Meanwhile, both sides have intensified attacks on each other’s military and commercial targets. Pressure to launch new talks will rise amid a battlefield stalemate, although a ceasefire remains unlikely in the short-term.
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Europe: Kosovo’s PM Kurti fails to secure outright majority in elections, raising stability risks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance; political impasse; economic risks
In Kosovo, on 7 June Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Vetevendosje party won the 7 June snap elections with 43 per cent of the vote, with 99.4 per cent of ballots counted. However, the party failed to secure an outright majority in the third such election in less than 18 months. Opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo secured 21 per cent and the Democratic League of Kosovo 18 per cent of the vote. Pristina has faced a prolonged political deadlock following inconclusive results in the February and December 2025 elections, delaying vital reforms to access EU funding. The latest snap elections were scheduled after lawmakers failed to agree on a new candidate to replace former president Vjosa Osmani by the 29 April deadline. Political instability risks will remain high amid high polarisation and distrust between Kurti and the opposition.
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MENA: Iran and Israel exchange direct strikes for the first time since the April ceasefire
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Iran, on 7 June Tehran launched missiles toward northern Israel in response to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Beirut’s Dahiyeh, Lebanon, prompting IDF airstrikes across central, southern and western Iran despite US President Donald Trump’s call for restraint. The exchange marked the first direct confrontation since the 7 April ceasefire. Iranian strikes caused no reported Israeli casualties, while Israeli strikes hit a petrochemical facility in Khuzestan province and air defence infrastructure near Tehran and Ahvaz. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Huthis launched a missile toward Israel on 8 June and declared a Red Sea shipping ban on Israeli vessels. Tehran announced the end of its operations against Israel, warning that further attacks would trigger a stronger response. In the coming days, a multi-theatre escalation cannot be ruled out without efficient US-Iran talks, with a growing risk of wider regional war.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Violent clashes risk precipitating a wider crisis in Somalia’s politics
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability; civil war; violent clashes; tribal violence
In Somalia, on 4 June violent clashes broke out between government forces and armed groups aligned with the opposition Somali Future Council coalition in the capital Mogadishu. Prior to the clashes, police and military units were deployed across opposition-aligned areas in the capital, surrounding the residences of key opposition figures ahead of planned protests. Last-minute dialogue between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and opposition figures failed to yield a breakthrough, and raids on the residences of several opposition figures later that day sparked clashes. Armed clashes will likely further deepen the rift between Mohamud and the opposition as ties with the semi-autonomous republics of Puntland and Jubaland remain tense. International and national efforts to resolve disputes over the proposed one-person one-vote (1P1V) elections risk further escalation as the crisis unfolds, with further clashes likely in the coming months.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake country profile.