Americas: US-backed political talks set to begin in Venezuela
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Venezuela, on 1 August the interim government and an opposition delegation announced plans to begin US-backed negotiations on political reforms, with talks expected to commence in Caracas in the coming days. National Assembly head Jorge Rodriguez will represent the government, while the opposition will be led by Dinorah Figuera. The talks aim to reform the electoral council, judiciary and broader political system ahead of eventual elections, although the exclusion of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado could undermine their domestic legitimacy despite her support for genuine democratic progress. The negotiations followed deposed president Nicolas Maduro’s removal and arrest by the US in January and Washington’s installation of an interim government, highlighting its central role in the country’s transition. Progress will depend on agreement over institutional reforms, political prisoner releases and an electoral roadmap, while maintaining opposition unity and continued US support.
Click here to access Venezuela’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Japan and US conduct first joint yen intervention since 2011
Sectors: all
Key Risks: currency volatility; monetary policy; political stability
In Japan, on 1 August the Finance Ministry confirmed that it conducted a coordinated yen-buying operation with the US Treasury, the first time the two countries have acted together to support the currency since 2011. The move followed the yen’s fall to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, driven by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s 21.3tn yen (US$140bln) spending package, rising borrowing costs and interest rates in Japan that remain below those in the US. Joint intervention is rare and signalled that Washington sees the yen’s collapse as a risk to financial stability, since investors have long borrowed cheaply in yen to fund purchases of higher-yielding dollar assets. The next import decision will come at the Bank of Japan’s September meeting, where it must decide whether to raise rates faster to support the currency, a move that would squeeze Takaichi’s spending plans and add to the cost of servicing Japan’s debt.
Click here to access Japan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia’s online retailer Wildberries
Sectors: retail
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Russia, on 4 August three people were injured when Ukrainian drones struck a warehouse belonging to the online retailer Wildberries near Khryastovo, Vladimir Oblast. The incident came after Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries’ logistics complex in Novosemeykino, Samara Oblast, on 2 August. At least 18 warehouses have been attacked since 18 July. Forbes Russia estimated that around 17 per cent of the retailer’s warehouse infrastructure was damaged, with losses estimated at around US$2.7bln–3.5bln. Wildberries has reportedly announced a relief package for merchants using the platform and pledged to freeze loan repayments for small and medium-sized businesses affected by the strikes. However, some merchants have complained that this has not been sufficient. Kyiv accused the retailer of supplying the Russian military. Further such attacks are likely amid Ukraine’s efforts to increase economic pressure on Moscow.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: EU Interior Ministers to hold urgent meeting to find unity following Ceuta crisis
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
On 4 August, the EU is set to hold an urgent meeting of Interior Ministers following the influx of around 60,000 migrants to the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from Morocco on 30-31 July. The events have highlighted divisions among EU member countries. On 31 July Italy introduced temporary border controls on Spain, with Finland and Denmark backing the move, while Czech PM Andrej Babis called for temporarily suspending Madrid’s Schengen membership. Madrid condemned the moves as “selfish, polarising and unlawful” and summoned the Italian ambassador. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that virtually all migrants had been returned to Morocco after the army intervened on 31 July. Investigations remained ongoing into what prompted the influx. While the 4 August meeting will aim to address divisions and restore unity, tensions are likely to persist.
Click here to access Spain’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Six Saudi-flagged supertankers avoid Yemen’s Bab al-Mandeb following Huthi threats
Sectors: all
Key risks: war at sea; supply chain disruption
In Yemen, on 3 August six Saudi-flagged supertankers diverted from the Gulf of Aden toward southern Africa. Operated by Saudi-based Bahri, the tankers can each carry up to two million barrels of crude. The vessels, which were returning empty from Asia, avoided the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint and Red Sea route due to rising security risks. The rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope could add at least 25 days to voyages. This followed the Huthis’ 20 July declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and came as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased reliance on the Red Sea for Saudi oil exports. The maritime crisis, which began with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and has since expanded to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, is expected to be a key focus of upcoming US-Iran negotiations.
Click here to access Yemen’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Ethiopia’s Tigray authorities allege federal offensive in Western Tigray
Sectors: all
Key risks: separatism; violent clashes; regional escalation; political stability
In Ethiopia, on 1 August clashes broke out between the military and the Tigray separatist group Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Shererina, Tigray region. The TPLF accused the federal government of launching a new military offensive and potentially escalating political tensions into “open war”. In turn, a government minister accused TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael of instigating the clashes. The fighting followed months of deteriorating relations over the non-implementation of the November 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the two-year civil war in Tigray region, and the lack of political will by both parties to seek a diplomatic resolution to political tensions. Accusations from both parties are likely to sustain political tensions in the short term. Additionally, the clashes have created a flashpoint of tension after months of reported military build-ups, with an elevated risk of further clashes in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.