Americas: Protest against US sanctions ahead of Trump’s incoming administration in Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; bilateral tensions; civil unrest In Cuba, on 20 December thousands protested in front of the US embassy in the capital Havana over long-standing US sanctions on the country. The protest – led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel and […]
Date first published: 12/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; polarisation; civil unrest; governance risks Risk development On 3 December President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, announcing that the country and its government had been “paralysed by pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. The declaration banned demonstrations and all political activities, including those of the National Assembly […]
Americas: Protests against pension reform ahead of National Assembly debate in Panama Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; vandalism In Panama, on 17 December labour unions and the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) are likely to stage protests and road blocks against the proposed pension reform bill in the capital Panama City. SUNTRACS […]
Date first published: 10/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regime change Risk development On 8 December opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared the end of President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule after entering Damascus. They imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time while al-Assad left the country, being granted […]
Americas: Mexico’s unionised education workers set to march in Mexico City, strike nationwide Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest In Mexico, on 9 December the National Coordinating Committee of Education Workers (CNTE) is set to mobilise a mass march in the capital Mexico City and a nationwide strike at more than 5,300 public […]
Date first published: 03/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions Risk development On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces […]
Americas: Ruling may further delay count of Puerto Rico’s 5 November election result Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability In Puerto Rico, on 27 November a judge issued a ruling in response to a lawsuit. It ordered the State Elections Commission (EC) to count early votes following ID verification – threatening to further delay the […]
Date first published: 26/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; governability risks Risk development On 8 November, at least 15 people were killed by Lakurawa militants in Mera village, Augie Local Government Area (LGA) in Kebbi state. A traditional leader noted that this was the first attack by the group in the area. […]
Americas: Thousands protest President Petro’s reforms in major cities across Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest In Colombia, on 23 November thousands demonstrated in Cali, Valle del Cauca province; Medellin, Antioquia province; and the capital Bogota to protest President Gustavo Petro’s policies – including pension, health and labour reforms – as well […]
Date first published: 19/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic stagnation; corruption Risk development Botswana went to the polls on 30 October in what was set up to be a run-of-the-mill election for the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which governed the country since independence in 1966. Instead, the BDP suffered a resounding […]
Americas: Uruguay gears up for run-off presidential election on 24 November Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; traffic disruption In Uruguay, on 24 November voters will head to the polls to elect President Luis Lacalle Pou’s successor in a run-off vote between Pou’s ruling centre-right coalition led by the Partido Nacional (PN) and the opposition […]
Date first published: 07/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political polarisation Risk development Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump regained the White House with a stunning victory in the 5 November presidential election. At the time of writing, Trump, who was president from early 2017 to early 2021, looks set to win […]
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