Americas: Protests against pension reform likely to intensify in Panama in coming weeks Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business disruptions; vandalism In Panama, on 12 February a protest against the proposed pension reform bill by the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) led to violent confrontations with the riot police in the capital […]
Date first published: 12/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 20 January, Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked markets when it released DeepSeek-R1 and a paper detailing that training DeepSeek-V3 required less than US$6m worth of computing power from low-powered Nvidia H800 chips. The emergence of the low-cost […]
Americas: Private sector set to strike on 10 February in Bolivia Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruptions In Bolivia, on 10 February business unions and export associations are set to stage a nationwide 24-hour strike to protest President Luis Arce’s government’s refusal to repeal Article 7 of the 2025 General […]
Date first published: 04/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: insurgency; war-on-land; regional tensions Risk development On 27 January Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, marking the most serious escalation in the ongoing war since it resumed in 2022. At least 778 people have been killed and 2,880 others […]
Americas: Ecuador gears up for high-stakes presidential and legislative elections on 9 February Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence In Ecuador, on 9 February voters will head to the polls for legislative and presidential elections. While voters will have a choice of 16 presidential hopefuls, the voter intention polls suggest the presidential election will be […]
Date first published: 23/01/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regional stability Risk development On 19 January a ceasefire agreement came into effect following 15 months of an incessant war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The truce – mediated by the United States (US), Qatar and Egypt – is to be implemented in three […]
Americas: The ELN guerilla pledges to continue the “war of liberation” in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; regional conflict In Colombia, on 24 January the ELN announced it would continue its “war of liberation” in Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander department, claiming that the dozens of captured members from the 33rd Front of […]
Date first published: 09/01/2025 Key sectors: all; tourism Key risks: insecurity; gang-related violence; violent crime; economic risk Risk development On 30 December 2024 Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) amid a surge in gang-related violence. The move followed a series of homicides over the weekend of 28-29 December. On 28 […]
Date first published: 16/01/2025 Key sectors: all; maritime shipping Key risks: geopolitical conflict; supply chain disruption Risk development On 26 December 2024 President Jose Raul Mulino rejected the possibility of reducing tolls for US vessels or ceding control of the Panama Canal after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to take the canal back into US […]
Americas: Heightened civil unrest risks ahead of protesters’ deadline for government in Bolivia Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Bolivia, on 16 January supporters of former president Evo Morales suspended protests in the capital La Paz after delivering a letter to President Luis Arce, demanding action on the economic crisis and an end to […]
Americas: Mayor killed amid rising political violence ahead of 5 February elections in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; political instability; gang-related violence In Ecuador, on 11 January the Mayor of Arenillas, Eber Ponce, was shot five times by a gunman on a motorbike while driving his pickup truck in El Oro province. He […]
Date first published: 7/1/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; regime change Risk Development On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population […]