Americas: Ecuadorian government alleges sabotage responsible for oil spill, warns of attacks Sectors: all; energy sector; water sector Key Risks: business disruptions; targeted attacks; supply chain disruption In Ecuador, on 20 March President Daniel Noboa’s government claimed that the 18 March oil spill – initially blamed on a landslide – in Quininde, Esmeraldas province, was […]
Date first published: 18/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, political violence, communal violence, targeted attacks, corruption Risk development On 11 March former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Ninoy Aquino International Airport on an ICC warrant for crimes against humanity of murder, torture and rape, committed during his intermittent tenure as mayor of Davao […]
Americas: Thousands demonstrate in support of former president Bolsonaro in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political polarisation In Brazil, on 16 March thousands demonstrated in support of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro state. Protesters demanded that Congress grant amnesty to hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters […]
Date first published: 11/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governance; regional escalation Risk development On 27 February Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called for the group’s disarmament and dissolution, urging its leadership to convene a congress to finalise the decision. The PKK responded with an immediate ceasefire […]
Americas: Rice farmers launch nationwide blockades in Colombia Sectors: all; agricultural Key Risks: business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruptions; cargo transport In Colombia, on 3 March rice farmers initiated an indefinite nationwide campaign of road blockades in demand for fair prices – currently at COP180,000 (US$44) – for their harvests. The producers requested that […]
Date first published: 04/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 28 February a meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House ended in a disastrous public spat as the two leaders argued over Trump’s push for peace talks to end the war in […]
Americas: ELN armed attacks against security forces likely to escalate in northeast Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks; terrorism In Colombia, on 20 February the mayor of Cucuta, Norte de Santander department, imposed a 48-hour curfew – starting 19:00 local time – after the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group attacked police […]
Date first published: 20/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: arbitrary arrests; partisan attacks; political polarisation Risk development As of 20 February, an estimated 5,500 people have been arrested as part of the government’s Operation Devil Hunt, with over 500 taking place within the past 24 hours. The operation, launched to re-establish order as civil unrest […]
Americas: Protests erupt against Tia Maria copper mine project in Peru Sectors: all; mining; transportation Key Risks: supply chain disruptions; business disruptions; civil unrest; violent clashes; In Peru, on 17 February residents of the Valle del Tambo in Islay province, Arequipa region, launched protests against the Southern Cooper Corporation’s US$41.8bln Tia Maria copper mine project. […]
Date first published: 18/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; political polarisation Risk development On 8 February a new government was formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, following the 10 January election of President Joseph Aoun, filling a two-year leadership vacuum. The new government, pending parliamentary approval, pledges to reform the country’s sectarian […]
Americas: Protests against pension reform likely to intensify in Panama in coming weeks Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business disruptions; vandalism In Panama, on 12 February a protest against the proposed pension reform bill by the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) led to violent confrontations with the riot police in the capital […]
Date first published: 12/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 20 January, Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked markets when it released DeepSeek-R1 and a paper detailing that training DeepSeek-V3 required less than US$6m worth of computing power from low-powered Nvidia H800 chips. The emergence of the low-cost […]
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