Gabon: Deja coup

Date first published: 07/09/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas, all Key risks: political instability, economic, business risks Risk development On 30 August military officers announced during a televised address that they had seized power and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest just hours after the Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) announced Bongo as the winner […]
Thailand: A tenuous and disparate coalition

Date first published: 31/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; political polarisation; civil unrest Risk Development On 22 August former real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from the populist Pheu Thai Party (PTP) was elected prime minister, ending 100 days of political impasse following the 14 May general election which ultimately sidelined the surprise winner […]
Turkmenistan: Gas for EU?

Date first published: 29/08/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: business and economic risks Risk development On 25 July Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement responding to “increased reports in international media” on the possibility of the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project (TCP). In the statement, the Ministry called the TCP an “absolutely […]
Argentina: The libertarian shock

Date first published: 17/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability; economic Risk development On 13 August far-right libertarian Javier Milei unexpectedly won most votes in the presidential primaries. He secured 30.2 per cent of the ballots cast, defeating the candidates from the two coalitions that have ruled the country for the […]
Myanmar: No sign of abating

Date first published: 10/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; political instability; violent clashes; civil war Risk development On 31 July the military government extended the country’s state of emergency by another six months – the fourth extension since the February 2021 coup d’état that ousted former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National […]
Haiti: Nairobi answers Henry’s calls for help

Date first published: 08/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime Risk development On 27 July the Kenyan Foreign Minister Alfred Mutua stated that Nairobi was ready to lead a multinational force in Haiti to fight against violent armed gangs and rampant insecurity. Mutua stated that Nairobi’s commitment was “to deploy […]
Niger: The impact of another putsch in West Africa

Date first published: 01/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; business disruption Risk development On 26 July soldiers from the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (CNSP) carried out a coup and deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. On 28 July the CNSP announced General Abdourahmane Tchiani as leader of the military junta. […]
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Politics of subversion

Date first published: 25/07/2023 Key sector: all Key risks: political instability; ethnic tensions; internal conflict Risk development On 21 June 2023 lawmakers in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (RS) – one of Bosnia’s two autonomous entities – voted to stop publishing UN High Representative Christian Schmidt’s decisions in the official gazette, meaning that his acts would […]
Japan: Fukushima nuclear waste and fish diplomacy

Date first published: 18/07/2023 Key sectors: fishing; seafood Key risks: environmental; economic; business disruption Risk development On 4 July the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Tokyo’s plans to release 1.37m tonnes of treated water stored at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station into the sea was in line with IAEA Safety Standards. The […]
Saudi Arabia: Government backs mining sector expansion

Date first published: 06/07/2023 Key sectors: mining Key risks: economic Risk development Saudi Arabia – the world’s largest oil exporter – has been ramping up efforts to develop its non-oil sector. The recent stagnation of oil prices and the projected long-term decline of global oil demand are pushing the Saudi kingdom to accelerate the diversification […]
Sub-Saharan Africa: The future for Wagner in Africa

Date first published: 04/07/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism; political instability Risk development On 23 June Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, released a video in which he announced that his Wagner forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march for justice” […]
Russia: The mutiny

Date first published: 27/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; internal conflict; political instability Risk overview Late on 23 June the head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, published a video in which he announced that his forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march […]