Mali: The resumption of the Tuareg rebellion

Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
Canada-India: A broken relationship

Date first published: 28/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; trade disruptions Risk development On 18 September Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary claim of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian state involvement in the June killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. While Trudeau did not substantiate […]
Maldives: Trouble in the neighbourhood

Date first published: 19/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; political violence; economic risks Risk development On 9 September President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih unexpectedly came in second to his main challenger, Malé Mayor Mohamed Muizzu from the opposition coalition led by the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) – with 39 per […]
Gabon: Deja coup

Date first published: 07/09/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas, all Key risks: political instability, economic, business risks Risk development On 30 August military officers announced during a televised address that they had seized power and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest just hours after the Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) announced Bongo as the winner […]
Thailand: A tenuous and disparate coalition

Date first published: 31/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; political polarisation; civil unrest Risk Development On 22 August former real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from the populist Pheu Thai Party (PTP) was elected prime minister, ending 100 days of political impasse following the 14 May general election which ultimately sidelined the surprise winner […]
Turkmenistan: Gas for EU?

Date first published: 29/08/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: business and economic risks Risk development On 25 July Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement responding to “increased reports in international media” on the possibility of the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project (TCP). In the statement, the Ministry called the TCP an “absolutely […]
Argentina: The libertarian shock

Date first published: 17/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability; economic Risk development On 13 August far-right libertarian Javier Milei unexpectedly won most votes in the presidential primaries. He secured 30.2 per cent of the ballots cast, defeating the candidates from the two coalitions that have ruled the country for the […]
Myanmar: No sign of abating

Date first published: 10/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; political instability; violent clashes; civil war Risk development On 31 July the military government extended the country’s state of emergency by another six months – the fourth extension since the February 2021 coup d’état that ousted former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National […]
Haiti: Nairobi answers Henry’s calls for help

Date first published: 08/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime Risk development On 27 July the Kenyan Foreign Minister Alfred Mutua stated that Nairobi was ready to lead a multinational force in Haiti to fight against violent armed gangs and rampant insecurity. Mutua stated that Nairobi’s commitment was “to deploy […]
Niger: The impact of another putsch in West Africa

Date first published: 01/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; business disruption Risk development On 26 July soldiers from the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (CNSP) carried out a coup and deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. On 28 July the CNSP announced General Abdourahmane Tchiani as leader of the military junta. […]
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Politics of subversion

Date first published: 25/07/2023 Key sector: all Key risks: political instability; ethnic tensions; internal conflict Risk development On 21 June 2023 lawmakers in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (RS) – one of Bosnia’s two autonomous entities – voted to stop publishing UN High Representative Christian Schmidt’s decisions in the official gazette, meaning that his acts would […]
Japan: Fukushima nuclear waste and fish diplomacy

Date first published: 18/07/2023 Key sectors: fishing; seafood Key risks: environmental; economic; business disruption Risk development On 4 July the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Tokyo’s plans to release 1.37m tonnes of treated water stored at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station into the sea was in line with IAEA Safety Standards. The […]