Haiti: Nairobi answers Henry’s calls for help

Date first published: 08/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime Risk development On 27 July the Kenyan Foreign Minister Alfred Mutua stated that Nairobi was ready to lead a multinational force in Haiti to fight against violent armed gangs and rampant insecurity. Mutua stated that Nairobi’s commitment was “to deploy […]
Niger: The impact of another putsch in West Africa

Date first published: 01/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; business disruption Risk development On 26 July soldiers from the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (CNSP) carried out a coup and deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. On 28 July the CNSP announced General Abdourahmane Tchiani as leader of the military junta. […]
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Politics of subversion

Date first published: 25/07/2023 Key sector: all Key risks: political instability; ethnic tensions; internal conflict Risk development On 21 June 2023 lawmakers in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (RS) – one of Bosnia’s two autonomous entities – voted to stop publishing UN High Representative Christian Schmidt’s decisions in the official gazette, meaning that his acts would […]
Japan: Fukushima nuclear waste and fish diplomacy

Date first published: 18/07/2023 Key sectors: fishing; seafood Key risks: environmental; economic; business disruption Risk development On 4 July the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Tokyo’s plans to release 1.37m tonnes of treated water stored at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station into the sea was in line with IAEA Safety Standards. The […]
Saudi Arabia: Government backs mining sector expansion

Date first published: 06/07/2023 Key sectors: mining Key risks: economic Risk development Saudi Arabia – the world’s largest oil exporter – has been ramping up efforts to develop its non-oil sector. The recent stagnation of oil prices and the projected long-term decline of global oil demand are pushing the Saudi kingdom to accelerate the diversification […]
Sub-Saharan Africa: The future for Wagner in Africa

Date first published: 04/07/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism; political instability Risk development On 23 June Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, released a video in which he announced that his Wagner forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march for justice” […]
Russia: The mutiny

Date first published: 27/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; internal conflict; political instability Risk overview Late on 23 June the head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, published a video in which he announced that his forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march […]
Colombia: The long-awaited and ever challenging ELN ceasefire

Date first published: 15/06/2023 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; transport; electricity Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping Risk development On 9 June President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group announced that they had reached a six-month nationwide bilateral ceasefire agreement effective from 3 August. […]
Cambodia: A looming succession

Date first published: 13/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; arbitrary detentions; civil unrest Risk development On 25 May the Constitutional Council rejected an appeal from the main opposition Candlelight Party to participate in the forthcoming general election scheduled for 23 July. The decision upheld the 15 May Election Commission ruling barring the […]
Syria: The return of Bashar al-Assad to the Arab fold

Date first published: 01/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political stability; political violence Risk development On 19 May Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) warmly embraced President Bashar al-Assad on his arrival in the Saudi city of Jeddah to attend the Arab League summit for the first time in 11 […]
Russia: (In)significant incursion

Date first published: 30/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land Risk development On 21 May members of the Russian anti-Kremlin partisan groups that have contributed to the fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion – crossed the border from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast into Kozinka […]
Thailand: Moving forward

Date first published: 18/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; coup d’état Risk development Pita Limjaroenrat – the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) – has claimed the right to form the next government following the party’s unprecedented victory in the 14 May general election. On 18 […]