Insights
Date first published: 7/1/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; regime change Risk Development On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population […]
Americas: Opposition leader Machado calls for nationwide anti-government protests in Venezuela Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; traffic disruption In Venezuela, on 5 January opposition leader Maria Corina Machado urged supporters to demonstrate nationwide on 9 January to oust President Nicolas Maduro ahead of his 10 January inauguration for a third term. This came hours […]
Date first published: 31/12/2024 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: geopolitical tensions; defence spending Risk development Donald Trump’s looming return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 has sparked concern across NATO member states. Trump’s first presidency from 2017–2021 was marked by his criticism of NATO as “obsolete,” demands for increased European defence spending, […]
Americas: Indigenous protests against maximum security prison likely to continue in Ecuador Sectors: all; cargo; mining Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; traffic disruption In Ecuador, on 16 December President Daniel Noboa’s government announced a suspension of the construction of a maximum-security prison in Archidona, Napo province. The announcement came in response to protests by […]
Americas: Protest against US sanctions ahead of Trump’s incoming administration in Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; bilateral tensions; civil unrest In Cuba, on 20 December thousands protested in front of the US embassy in the capital Havana over long-standing US sanctions on the country. The protest – led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel and […]
Date first published: 12/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; polarisation; civil unrest; governance risks Risk development On 3 December President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, announcing that the country and its government had been “paralysed by pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. The declaration banned demonstrations and all political activities, including those of the National Assembly […]
Americas: Protests against pension reform ahead of National Assembly debate in Panama Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; vandalism In Panama, on 17 December labour unions and the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) are likely to stage protests and road blocks against the proposed pension reform bill in the capital Panama City. SUNTRACS […]
Date first published: 10/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regime change Risk development On 8 December opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared the end of President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule after entering Damascus. They imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time while al-Assad left the country, being granted […]
Americas: Mexico’s unionised education workers set to march in Mexico City, strike nationwide Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest In Mexico, on 9 December the National Coordinating Committee of Education Workers (CNTE) is set to mobilise a mass march in the capital Mexico City and a nationwide strike at more than 5,300 public […]
Date first published: 03/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions Risk development On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces […]
Americas: Ruling may further delay count of Puerto Rico’s 5 November election result Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability In Puerto Rico, on 27 November a judge issued a ruling in response to a lawsuit. It ordered the State Elections Commission (EC) to count early votes following ID verification – threatening to further delay the […]
Date first published: 26/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; governability risks Risk development On 8 November, at least 15 people were killed by Lakurawa militants in Mera village, Augie Local Government Area (LGA) in Kebbi state. A traditional leader noted that this was the first attack by the group in the area. […]
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