Insights
Americas: Social organisations urge extension of expired government, ELN ceasefire in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 4 August over 700 social organisations in the Humanitarian Coordinator association urged President Gustavo Petro’s government and the ELN guerrilla group to extend the bilateral ceasefire that expired on […]
Americas: Arrest of Sinaloa cartel leaders set to escalate violence in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: gang violence; organised crime violence In Mexico, on 28 July the US ambassador to the country stated that the 25 July arrest of Sinaloa cartel – one of the world’s most powerful narco trafficking organisations – leaders Ismael ‘El […]
Americas: Controversy and unrest likely ahead of 28 July presidential elections in Venezuela Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; civil unrest; corruption; sanctions In Venezuela, on 28 July voters will head to the polls to choose between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition coalition Unitary Platform (UP)’s presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Maduro […]
Americas: Trump assassination attempt raises fears of increasing political violence in the US Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; electoral violence; political stability In the US, former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump was shot in the ear in an assassination attempt and one spectator was killed during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant, […]
Americas: Heightened civil unrest risks amid planned fuel price hikes in Ecuador Sectors: all; transport Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; economic In Ecuador, on 4 July hundreds of workers, teachers and students protested in the capital Quito after the National Union of Educators, Unitary Workers Front and Federation of University Students of Ecuador called […]
Americas: Increased police presence following coup attempt in Bolivia Sectors: transport; all Key Risks: political stability; traffic disruption; civil unrest In Bolivia, on 26 June the army took control over Plaza Murillo square in the capital La Paz and forced entry into the presidential palace in an apparent coup attempt, led by General Juan Jose […]
Americas: Demonstrations announced against Sao Paulo Forum in Honduras on 27-28 June Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruptions; civil unrest In Honduras, on 19 June the National Anticorruption Movement non-governmental organisation announced that it would stage a protest against the Sao Paulo Forum, taking place in the capital Tegucigalpa on 27-28 June. The organisers stated […]
Date first published: 17/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New […]
Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
Date first published: 28/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; trade disruptions Risk development On 18 September Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary claim of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian state involvement in the June killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. While Trudeau did not substantiate […]
Date first published: 19/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; political violence; economic risks Risk development On 9 September President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih unexpectedly came in second to his main challenger, Malé Mayor Mohamed Muizzu from the opposition coalition led by the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) – with 39 per […]
Americas: President-elect to call on supporters to protest efforts against MS party in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability In Guatemala, on 15 September president-elect Bernardo Arevalo stated that he was planning to rally his supporters in the coming days to protest repeated efforts to derail his presidency before he is set […]
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