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South Africa: A bruised, battered and divided ANC leadership

Date first published: 15/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty   Risk development On 13 December Members of Parliament (MPs) from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) voted to reject the adoption of a report which found prima facie evidence that President Cyril Ramaphosa had violated his oath of office because he […]

Venezuela: Fewer sanctions, more dialogue?

Date first published: 8/12/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; sanctions   Risk development On 26 November the United States (US) further eased oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing US oil firm Chevron to resume the production and exportation of Venezuelan oil and oil-related products for the first time since the sanctions […]

Qatar: A failed sportswashing operation?

Date first published: 01/12/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional stability; reputational risk   Risk development The 2022 FIFA World Cup, the world’s most popular sporting event, kicked off in Qatar on 20 November surrounded by controversies. The working conditions of migrant workers, the country’s human rights record and the process to select the host […]

Malaysia: Another chance at a stable government

Date first published: 24/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; economic risks   Risk development Long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as Prime Minister on 24 November ending a five-day political impasse that followed the 19 November general election which delivered Malaysia’s first ever hung parliament. Both Anwar and former […]

Haiti: Entrenched gang power

Date first published: 22/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; violent unrest; deadly clashes; crime; kidnap and ransom   Risk development On 6 November influential gang leader Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier announced that the almost two-months long blockade at the Varreux fuel port terminal in the capital Port-au-Prince would be lifted. The move allowed fuel […]

Pakistan: Attempted assassination of Imran Khan

Date first published: 15/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political violence   Risk development On 3 November former prime minister and chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan was shot in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad, Punjab province. Reports indicate that a gunman shot at Khan’s container-mounted-truck six times, with the former […]

Brazil: Lula

Date first published: 08/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy continuity; regulatory uncertainty; political instability; political violence; civil unrest   Risk development Leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly won the 30 October presidential runoff – arguably the most polarised election in Brazil’s history. The historic comeback is one of several political shifts […]

China: Takeaways from the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress

Date first published: 27/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; economic risks   Risk Development The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing saw President Xi Jinping break decades of precedent and secure a historic third term as General Secretary. His accruement of political power came after successive breaches of […]

Argentina: Violence in the south

Date first published: 25/10/2022 Key sectors: tourism; construction; private property; energy; cargo transport; security forces Key risks: arson attacks; land occupations; disruptive blockades; civil unrest   Risk development A significant uptick in indigenous Mapuche-related violence has been observed in the southern provinces of Neuquen and Rio Negro. On 14 October at least two hooded, armed […]

Saudi Arabia-US: a deteriorating relationship?

Date first published: 18/10/2022 Key sectors: energy; military; economy Key risks: policy; economic   Risk development On 5 October OPEC+ members, spearhead by Saudi Arabia, decided to cut oil production in a bid to raise falling prices. Non-OPEC member countries, including Russia, are part of OPEC +. The United States (US) immediately responded by accusing […]

Burkina Faso: Protracted instability in the Sahel

Date first published: 11/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; political violence; political instability; policy uncertainty   Risk development On 30 September Captain Ibrahim Toure launched a coup in the capital Ouagadougou and deposed military leader Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. By midnight, Toure dissolved the transitional government and suspended the constitution. Toure’s putsch came just nine […]

Iran: Protests, but proper progress?

Date first published: 04/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; protests   Risk development Since 17 September at least 83 protesters and security force personnel were killed and over 1,000 protesters were arrested following the death of Mahsa Amini, killed in police custody for failure to comply with the hijab dress code […]

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