Ones to Watch, 15 September 2025

Americas: Contractors protest outside state oil firm Pemex’s facilities in Mexico Sectors: oil and gasKey Risks: business risks; business disruptions; industrial action In Mexico, on 9 September dozens of contractors from Veracruz and Oaxaca states – including suppliers and local construction companies – protested outside state-owned oil company Pemex’s facilities in the capital Mexico City, […]
Sudan-South Sudan: Pipe dreams

Date first published: 09/09/2025 Key sectors: oil & gas Key risks: armed conflict Risk development On 31 August the Sudanese Ministry of Energy and Petroleum announced an emergency shutdown of oil production in the Heglig oilfields, citing drone attacks conducted by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 and 30 August near the production facilities. […]
Ones to Watch, 8 September 2025

Americas: Venezuelan government boosts troops amid rising tensions with Washington Sectors: allKey Risks: regional escalation; gang violence; government instability In Venezuela, on 7 September President Nicolas Maduro’s government ordered additional troops to tackle drug trafficking in coastal states – including the Guajira region of Zulia state and the Paraguana peninsula in Falcon state – as […]
Turkey: Ruling AKP ascendant, opposition fragmented

Date first published: 28/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political violence; political polarization; arbitrary arrests; governance; civil unrest Risk development On 14 August Aydin Metropolitan Mayor Ozlem Cercioglu and three district mayors officially joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), citing internal divisions within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). […]
Ones to Watch, 1 September 2025

Americas: Guyana heads into general elections amid oil boom Sectors: allKey Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political uncertainty In Guyana, on 1 September voters will cast ballots in general elections to decide whether President Irfaan Ali’s ruling People Progressive Party (PPP) will preserve its parliamentary majority – holding 33 out of 65 seats in the […]
Bolivia: A new chapter after 20 years of MAS

Date first published: 26/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governance; policy uncertainty; economic Risk development On 17 August centrist senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) led the presidential election with 32.18 per cent, followed by conservative former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga of the Alianza coalition with 26.94 per cent. The […]
Ones to Watch, 26 August 2025

Americas: 19 killed, at least 71 injured in dissident former FARC rebel attacks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes In Colombia, on 21 August 19 people were killed and at least 71 were injured in two attacks, which President Gustavo Petro attributed to different dissident former FARC rebel factions. In Cali, […]
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Successful trip(p)

Date first published: 19/08/2025 Key sectors: all; transportation Key risks: war-on-land; business and economic Risk development On 8 August Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration pledging to end their decades-long conflict during a meeting with United States (US) President Donald Trump in Washington. The deal grants the US […]
Ones to Watch, 18 August 2025

Americas: Centrist senator Paz leads presidential election, ending left-wing dominance in Bolivia Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; governance; policy uncertainty In Bolivia, on 17 August early official results showed centrist senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party leading the presidential election with 32.8 per cent. Conservative former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga […]
El Salvador: The ‘Bukele Plan’ for democracy

Date first published: 07/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: governance; democratic backsliding; political stability; gang violence Risk development On 31 July the ruling New Ideas (NI) party – which dominates the National Assembly – passed a bill with 57 votes in favour and three against, allowing indefinite presidential re-election, extending terms from five to six years and […]
Ones to Watch, 11 August 2025

Americas: Surging violence raises concerns in Ecuador after eight killed, three injured in attack Sectors: all Key Risks: gang violence; violent clashes; targeted attacks In Ecuador, on 10 August eight people were killed and three others were injured in a shooting attack by armed assailants at a nightclub in Santa Lucia, Guayas province. This came […]
Cambodia-Thailand: Family matters

Date first published: 05/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; coup d’etat Risk development From 24 to 29 July 43 people were killed, 130 were injured and over 250,000 people were evacuated after the Thai and Cambodian militaries engaged in a series of clashes along the border in Surin, Buri Ram, […]